MWELEKEO WA MVUA KWA KIPINDI CHA OKTOBA - DISEMBA 2014 NCHINI

MWELEKEO WA MVUA KWA KIPINDI CHA OKTOBA - DISEMBA 2014 NCHINI  THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT TAN...



MWELEKEO WA MVUA KWA KIPINDI CHA OKTOBA - DISEMBA 2014 NCHINI 




THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT
TANZANIA METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY

 
Telegrams:"METEO"DAR ES SALAAM.                                                                 
Telex: 41442 HEWA
Telephone: 255 (0) 22 2460718
Telefax:      255 (0) 22 2460735                                                                                        P.O. BOX   3056
E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz                                                                                                                DAR ES SALAAM.
            
http//www.meteo.go.tz
Our ref: TMA/1622                                                                          4th September 2014

PRESS RELEASE
  

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR TANZANIA OCTOBER – DECEMBER, 2014 RAINFALL SEASON

  
A:        Introduction                                            


This statement gives a review of rainfall performance for March to May, 2014 and an outlook for October to December, 2014 short rain season (Vuli) in the country.
Highlights for October –December, 2014
1. Outlook for October to December, 2014 Vuli rainfall season indicates that:
·                  For the period of October to December, 2014, sufficient rains are expected over most areas of the country with periods of suppressed rainfall over the Southern region.
·         Early onset of rains is expected over the Lake Victoria basin, north-eastern highlands and northern coast.
2. Potential Impacts expected and advisory
·         Sufficient soil moisture levels are likely to favor normal cropping season over much of the country.
·         River flow discharges and water levels in rivers and dams are expected to improve from their current levels during the Vuli, 2014 Season.
·         Water harvesting and storage practices are recommended.
·         Heavy rains at times may cause excessive surface runoff and elevate flood risks leading to destruction of infrastructures, loss of life and properties.
·         Outbreak of water borne diseases particularly those related to stagnant waters and uncontrolled sewerages.
·         Minimal human-wildlife  conflicts are likely during this rainfall season
·         Necessary measures such as good practice of environmental conservations and ensure preparedness, response, and mitigation plan to reduce any negative impacts that may result from the expected above normal rainfall.

 
 


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B:        REVIEW OF RAINFALL PERFORMANCE
During the long rain season of March to May (MAM) 2014, most parts of the country experienced normal to above normal rainfall with pockets of below normal rainfall over parts of Mwanza, Singida and Dodoma regions. The occurrence of Tropical Cyclone ‘‘HELLEN’’ in Mozambique channel over South Western Indian Ocean contributed to enhanced rainfall over Northern Coast areas.
Lake Victoria Basin: Bukoba and Musoma stations received above normal rainfall. Shinyanga station received normal rainfall while Mwanza station received  below normal rainfall.
North-Eastern Highland: Station of Arusha,  Lyamungo and Kilimanjaro recorded above normal rainfall while Same and Moshi normal rainfall.
Northern Coast and Unguja and Pemba Islands: Dar es Salaam, Morogoro and Pemba stations reported above normal rainfall while Unguja (Zanzibar, Amani, Kizimbani), and Tanga statins received normal rainfall.
South-Western Highland: Mbeya, Mahenge and Tukuyu stations recorded above normal rainfall while Sumbawanga station received normal rainfall.
Western: Station of Kigoma received above normal rainfall while Tabora and Kibondo recorded normal rainfall.
Southern Coast: Kilwa station received above normal while Mtwara received normal rainfall.
Central: Station of Hombolo recorded normal rainfall while Singida and Dodoma below normal rainfall.
Southern region: Songea station measured above normal rainfall.

C: CLIMATE SYSTEMS OUTLOOK
During October to December, 2014 rainfall season, anomalous warming over Western and South- Western Indian Ocean coupled with neutral SSTs over Eastern Indian Ocean (Indonesia) are likely to enhance easterly to north easterly wind flow. Expected cooling over Atlantic Ocean, is likely to support moist westerly wind flow from Congo Basin. Slightly warming over Central Equatorial Pacific is likely to persist during the October to December, 2014 rainfall season and contribute to enhanced rainfall over bimodal areas. Moreover, warming across much of the South-western Indian Ocean during the month of November and December, 2014 is likely to trigger occurrence of tropical cyclones.
D:        SEASONAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK:
Expected climate systems for October to December, 2014 rainfall season is likely to feature as follows:
(i)         Short Rainfall Season (Vuli) over Bimodal areas
The October to December, 2014 rainfall season (Vuli) is more significant for the northeastern highlands, northern coast areas, Lake Victoria Basin and northern Kigoma. The rains are expected to be normal to above normal over the northern coast (Dar es Salaam, Northern Morogoro, Coast regions, including Unguja and Pemba isles), Northeastern Highlands (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions) and Lake Victoria Basin (Kagera, Geita, Mara, Mwanza, Simiyu, and Shinyanga).

The onset of the short rainfall season (Vuli) is expected to commence in September, 2014 over Lake Victoria Basin and gradually spreading to other areas. However, early onset of the rains is likely over areas in the Northern coast (Mainly over Dar es Salaam, Pwani and Tanga including Unguja and Pemba Isles).
Lake Victoria Basin: (Kagera, Mara, Mwanza, Geita, Simiyu and Shinyanga regions):
Rains are expected to start during the first and second week of September, 2014 over Kagera, and northern Kigoma and then gradually spreading to Mwanza, Geita, Shinyanga, Mara and Simiyu regions. The rains are expected to be above normal over Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Mara, Simiyu and northern Kigoma regions while over Shinyanga region, rains are expected to be normal to above normal.
Northern coast areas and hinterlands: (Dar es Salaam, Tanga, and Coast regions, extreme northern Morogoro areas and Isles of Unguja and Pemba): Rains are expected to commence in the first week of September. The rains are likely to be normal to above normal over most areas.

North-eastern highlands: (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions): Rains are expected to commence in the second to third week of September, 2014 and are likely to be above normal over much of Kilimanjaro, Arusha and northern part of Manyara regions. However, southern parts of Manyara region are likely to experience normal to above normal rains.

(ii)        Seasonal Rainfall (November to April) over Unimodal areas:
November to April rainfall season is more significant for the western, central, southwestern highlands, southern region and southern coast. Rains are likely to be normal to above normal over most areas during the months of November to December 2014.

Western areas: (Tabora, Rukwa, Katavi and Kigoma regions):
Rains are expected to start in the second week of November, 2014 The rains are expected to be above normal over southern part of Kigoma, Rukwa and Katavi regions while much parts of Tabora region rains are expected to be normal to above normal.

Central (Singida and Dodoma regions):
Rains will commence on the third week of November, 2014 and are expected to be normal to above normal over much of Singida and Dodoma regions.

Southwestern highlands: (Mbeya, Iringa, and Njombe regions and southern Morogoro areas):
Rains over these regions are expected to start during the first to second week of November, 2014. The rains are expected to be normal to above normal over most areas while the western parts of Mbeya region are expected to experience above normal rains.

Southern region and Southern Coast: (Ruvuma, Mtwara and Lindi regions):
Rains are expected to start during the first to second week of November, 2014 and are expected to be normal to above normal over most areas. However, pockets of below normal rains are expected over Ruvuma region.

Figure 1 – Rainfall Normal Maps – left: Average rainfall for October to December; right: Outlook for the coming rainfall season October-December 2014
It should be noted that although events of heavy and short duration of rainfall are likely to be more frequent in areas with above normal rains they are also common even in normal to below normal rainfall conditions. Development of tropical cyclones over the southwest Indian Ocean is likely to influence rainfall patterns in the country. Areas in which rainfall is likely to be more influenced by Cyclones includes Central, South-Western highlands, Western areas and Coastal areas.

E: LIKELY IMPACTS AND ADVISORY

Normal and above normal rainfall conditions are expected over much of the country with exception of southern region which is likely to feature normal to below normal rainfall. The associated impacts on social-ecomic sectors and their respective advisories are highlighted as follows:

Agriculture and food Security
Sufficient soil moisture levels are likely to favor normal cropping season over much of the country except for southern sector of the country (mainly Ruvuma region) where periods of reduced rainfall are expected mainly during crop establishment. Excessive soil moisture levels associated with above normal rainfall are likely to favor weeds and impede crop development, thus high use of agricultural inputs is likely to raise production costs. Farmers are advised to prepare their farms and acquire agricultural inputs early enough while making appropriate land use management and right choice of crop varieties to plant.

Pasture and Water for Livestock and wildlife
Pasture and water availability for livestock and wildlife over much of the country is likely to be good. However, famers are encouraged to produce and stock animal feeds for use during the dry season. Due to high likelihood of disease outbreak, regular dipping and vaccination against pests and diseases are highly recommended. Wildlife-human conflicts due to wildlife migration and agricultural activities are likely to be minimal during the season.

Natural Resources and Tourism
Natural resources management Authority and Tourism Sector are encouraged to protect infrastacture such as roads and bridges against damage from the expected torrential and above normal rains in the National Parks and Game Reserve areas. Hunters, Photographic tourism visitors and tour operators are advised to be aware of floods of rivers due to the expected rainfall.
Energy and water
River flow discharges and water levels in dams are expected to improve from their current levels over much of the country. In spite of the expected normal and above normal rains, water should be used sparingly. Water harvesting and storage practices are recommended.
Local Authorities
Water drainage systems should be opened and cleaned to avoid water accumulation due to surface runoff as floods cause destruction of infrastructures, loss of lives and property.
Health sector
There is a likelihood of water borne diseases outbreaks due to stagnant waters and uncontrolled sewerages. Relevant Authorities and individuals are advised to take appropriate health measures need to minimize the expected negative health impacts.
Disaster Management
The disaster management authorities and other stakeholders are advised to take necessary measures such as good practice of environmental conservations and ensure preparedness, response, and mitigation plan to reduce any negative impacts that may result from the expected above normal rainfall.
Media
The media is advised to obtain, make regular follow-ups and disseminate weather and climate information and warning as provided by Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA). Moreover, Media is encouraged to seek and obtain inputs from relevant sectors when preparing and relaying cross cutting issue on Weather and Climate to the Public.

NB: The current status of seasonal forecasting allows for prediction of spatial and temporal averages and may not fully account for physical and dynamical factors that influence short term national climate variability.  Users of this outlook are, therefore urged to make good use of daily, ten day and monthly updates issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Agency.
Tanzania Meteorological Agency will continue to monitor developments of the systems and issue updates.


Dr. Agnes L. Kijazi
DIRECTOR GENERAL
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JAMHURI YA MUUNGANO WA TANZANIA
WIZARA YA UCHUKUZI
MAMLAKA YA HALI YA HEWA TANZANIA
 
                                               
Simu ya mdomo: 255 22 2460 735/2460 706-8
Nukushi:  255 22 2460 735/700                                                                                             S.L.P. 3056
Barua pepe: met@meteo.go.tz                                                                                 DAR ES SALAAM
Tovuti:  www.meteo.go.tz

Unapojibu tafadhali nakili:
Kumb. Na.: TMA/1622                                                                    4 Septemba, 2014

TAARIFA KWA VYOMBO VYA HABARI

MWELEKEO WA MVUA KWA KIPINDI CHA OKTOBA - DISEMBA 2014 NCHINI
  
A:        UTANGULIZI                                            


Taarifa hii inatoa tathmini ya mvua za masika (Machi - Mei) 2014 na mwelekeo wa mifumo ya hali ya hewa na mvua kwa kipindi  cha mwezi Oktoba hadi Disemba, 2014(Vuli).
1. Mwelekeo wa mvua kwa kipindi cha Oktoba-Disemba, 2014 Vuli unaonyesha kuwa;
·                  Hali ya mvua inatarajiwa kuwa ya  kuridhisha katika maeneo mengi ya nchi hata hivyo mvua za wastani hadi chini ya wastani zinatarajiwa  katika baadhi ya maeneo ya kusini mwa nchi hususan mkoa wa Ruvuma.
·         Msimu huu mvua zinatarajiwa kuanza mapema mwezi Septemba katika maeneo ya ziwa Viktoria, nyanda za juu kaskazini mashariki na pwani ya kasikazini
 2. Athari na Ushauri
·         Mvua za kutosha zinatarajiwa kwa shughuli za  kilimo katika maeneo mengi ya nchi.
·         Vina vya maji katika mito na mabwawa vinatarajiwa kuongezeka katika maeneo mengi ya nchi.
·         Maji yatumike kwa uangalifu na kuzingatia taratibu za uvunaji, uhifadhi na matumizi endelevu ya rasilimali maji
·         Matukio ya migogoro inayosababishwa na mifugo, wanyamapori na shughuli za binadamu na kilimo hayatarajiwi kujitokeza kwa kiasi kikubwa.
·         Vipindi vya mvua kubwa vinaweza kuongeza matukio ya mafuriko na uharibifu wa mali na miundombinu.
·         Milipuko ya magonjwa yanayosababishwa  na kutuama kwa maji na utiririshaji wa majitaka usiodhibitiwa inaweza kujitokeza.
·         Hatua stahiki katika utunzaji wa mazingira, upatikanaji wa maji safi na salama, na usambazaji wa madawa, maji na chakula ikiwa ni hatua za kujiandaa na kukabiliana na majanga yanayoweza kutokea
 
Dondoo muhimu Mvua za Vuli Oktoba-Disemba, 2014


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B:        TATHMINI YA MVUA KIPINDI CHA MACHI – MEI, 2014
Katika msimu uliopita wa mvua za Masika Machi hadi Mei, 2014. Maeneo mengi ya nchi yalipata mvua za wastani hadi juu ya wastani isipokuwa maeneo machache ya mikoa ya Mwanza, Singida na Dodoma ambayo yalipata mvua za chini ya wastani. Matukio ya vimbunga hususan Kimbunga ‘Hellen’ kilichotokea katika Rasi ya Msumbiji kusini magharibi mwa baharĆ­ ya Hindi kilisababisha ongezeko la mvua katika eneo la Pwani ya kaskazini.
Maeneo yanayopata misimu miwili ya mvua kwa mwaka:
Kanda ya Ziwa Victoria: Viwango vya mvua vilivyopimwa katika vituo vya Bukoba na Musoma vilikuwa juu ya wastani. Kituo cha Shinyanga kilipima mvua kiwango cha wastani wakati katika kituo cha Mwanza kiwango cha mvua kilikuwa chini ya wastani.
Nyanda za juu kaskazini mashariki: Vituo vya Arusha, Lyamungo na Kilimanjaro vilipima mvua juu ya wastani ilihali vituo vya Moshi na Same kiwango cha mvua kilikuwa cha wastani.
Pwani ya kaskazini na visiwa vya Unguja na Pemba: Vituo vya Dar es Salaam, Morogoro na Pemba vilipima mvua za juu ya wastani na vituo vya Zanzibar, Amani, Kizimbani pamoja na Tanga mvua zilikuwa wastani.
Maeneo yanayopata msimu mmoja wa mvua kwa mwaka:
Nyanda za juu kusini magharibi: Vituo vya Mbeya, Tukuyu, na Mahenge vilipima mvua juu ya wastani na kituo cha Sumbawanga kiwango cha mvua kilikuwa cha wastani.
Kanda ya magharibi: Mvua juu ya wastani ilipimwa katika kituo cha Kigoma ilihali vituo vya Kibondo na Tabora mvua zilikuwa ni za wastani.
Pwani ya kusini: Kituo cha Kilwa kilipima mvua juu ya wastani na vituo vya Mtwara pamoja na  Naliendele mvua zilikuwa za wastani.
Kanda ya kati: Vituo vya Singida na Dodoma vilipima mvua chini ya wastani na kituo cha Hombolo mvua za wastani.  
Kanda ya kusini: Kituo cha Songea kiwango cha mvua kilichopimwa kilikuwa juu ya wastani.
C: MIFUMO YA HALI YA HEWA
Katika kipindi cha miezi ya Oktoba hadi Disemba, 2014 hali ya joto la bahari katika maeneo ya magharibi na kusini -magharibi mwa bahari ya Hindi inatarajiwa kuwa juu ya wastani, upande wa mashariki mwa bahari ya Hindi hali ya  joto la wastani inatarajiwa. Hali hii inatarajiwa kusababisha  upepo  wenye unyevunyevu  kutoka bahari ya Hindi kuelekea katika eneo la  Pwani ya Africa Mashariki. Aidha, hali ya joto la chini ya wastani katika eneo la mashariki mwa bahari ya Atlantiki (Pwani ya Angola) inatarajiwa kusababisha ongezeko la hewa yenye unyevunyevu kutoka katika misitu ya Kongo kuelekea katika maeneo ya magharibi na kusini Magharibi mwa nchi.
Hali ya joto la juu ya wastani katika eneo la Tropikali ya bahari ya Pasifiki linatarajiwa kuendelea kwa kipindi cha miezi ya Oktoba hadi Disemba, 2014. Hali hiyo inatarajiwa kuchangia ongezeko la mvua katika baadhi ya maeneo yanayopata misimu miwili ya mvua. Hali ya joto la juu ya wastani katika eneo la kusini magharibi mwa Bahari ya Hindi linaashiria kuwepo kwa matukio ya vimbunga katika msimu wa mvua za Vuli kuanzia mwezi Novemba, 2014.
D:        MWELEKEO WA MVUA OKTOBA - DISEMBA 2014:  
Kutokana na mwelekeo wa mifumo ya hali ya hewa inayotarajiwa, mvua za kipindi cha Oktoba hadi Disemba, 2014 zinatarajiwa kuwa kama ifuatavyo:
(i)     Mvua za Vuli (kwa maeneo yanayopata misimu miwili ya mvua)
Msimu wa mvua wa Oktoba hadi Disemba (Vuli) ni mahususi katika maeneo ya nyanda za juu kaskazini mashariki, pwani ya kaskazini, kanda ya Ziwa Viktoria na kaskazini mwa mkoa wa Kigoma.

Katika msimu huu mvua zinatarajiwa kuwa za wastani hadi juu ya wastani katika maeneo ya pwani ya kaskazini (mikoa ya Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Tanga, kaskazini mwa mkoa wa Morogoro, pamoja na visiwa vya Unguja na Pemba), nyanda za juu kaskazini mashariki (mikoa ya Kilimanjaro, Arusha na Manyara) pamoja na mikoa ya Mwanza, Geita, Simiyu, Shinyanga na kaskazini mwa mkoa wa Kigoma.
Msimu wa mvua za Vuli unatarajiwa kuanza mwezi Septemba, 2014 katika ukanda wa Ziwa Viktoria na kusambaa katika maeneo mengine. Hata hivyo, mvua hizo zinatarajiwa kuanza mapema katika maeneo ya ukanda wa pwani (Mkoa wa Tanga na kisiwa cha Pemba) na katika baadhi ya maeneo ya nyanda za juu kaskazini Mashariki.

Kanda ya Ziwa Victoria: (Mikoa ya Kagera, Mara, Mwanza, Geita, Simiyu na Shinyanga): Mvua zinatarajiwa kuanza katika wiki ya kwanza na ya pili ya mwezi Septemba, 2014 katika mkoa wa Kagera na kaskazini mwa mkoa wa Kigoma na kuendelea kusambaa katika mikoa ya Mwanza,  Geita, Shinyanga, Simiyu na Mara. Mvua hizo zinatarajiwa kuwa za juu ya wastani katika maeneo ya mikoa ya Kagera, Geita, Mara, Mwanza pamoja na kaskazini mwa mkoa wa Kigoma. Maeneo mengi ya mkoa wa Shinyanga yanatarajiwa kuwa na mvua za wastani hadi juu ya wastani.

Ukanda wa Pwani ya Kaskazini: (Mikoa ya Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Pwani, Morogoro-kaskazini pamoja na Visiwa vya Unguja na Pemba):
Mvua zinatarajiwa kuanza wiki ya kwanza ya mwezi Septemba, 2014 katika maeneo ya mikoa ya Tanga, Dar es Salaam pamoja na visiwa vya Unguja na Pemba na kusambaa maeneo ya mkoa  wa Morogoro. Mvua hizi zinatarajiwa kuwa za wastani hadi juu ya wastani katika maeneo mengi.

Nyanda za juu Kaskazini Mashariki: (Mikoa ya Kilimanjaro, Arusha na Manyara):
Mvua katika maeneo haya zinatarajiwa kuanza wiki ya pili na ya tatu ya mwezi Septemba, 2014 na zinatarajiwa kuwa juu ya wastani katika maeneo mengi ya mikoa ya Kilimanjaro, Arusha na kaskazini mwa mkoa wa Manyara. Hata hivyo, kusini mwa mkoa wa Manyara, mvua zinatarajiwa kuwa za wastani hadi juu ya wastani.
(ii)        Mvua za Msimu (Novemba – Aprili) kwa maeneo yanayopata msimu mmoja wa mvua.
Msimu wa mvua za Novemba hadi Aprili ni mahususi kwa  maeneo ya  Magharibi mwa nchi, kanda ya  kati, nyanda za juu kusini-magharibi, kusini mwa nchi na pwani ya kusini. Katika kipindi cha Oktoba hadi Disemba, 2014 maeneo mengi yanatarajiwa kupata mvua za wastani hadi juu ya wastani.

Kanda ya Magharibi (Mikoa ya Kigoma, Tabora, Katavi na Rukwa):
Mvua zinatarajiwa kuanza wiki ya pili ya mwezi Novemba, 2014. Mvua hizi zinatarajiwa kuwa za juu ya wastani katika maeneo ya mikoa ya Rukwa, Katavi pamoja na kusini mwa mkoa wa Kigoma. Hata hivyo, maeneo mengi ya mkoa wa Tabora yanatarajiwa kuwa na mvua za wastani hadi juu ya wastani.
Kanda ya kati (Mikoa ya Singida na Dodoma):
Mvua zinatarajiwa kuanza wiki ya tatu ya mwezi Novemba, 2014 na zinatarajiwa kuwa za wastani hadi juu ya wastani.
Nyanda za juu Kusini Magharibi: (Mikoa ya Mbeya, Iringa, Njombe na kusini mwa Morogoro):
Mvua zinatarajiwa kuanza wiki ya kwanza na ya pili ya mwezi Novemba, 2014 na zinatarajiwa kuwa za wastani hadi juu ya wastani katika maeneo mengi. Maeneo ya magharibi mwa mkoa wa Mbeya, mvua zinatarajiwa kuwa juu ya wastani.
Maeneo ya kusini na pwani ya kusini (mikoa ya Ruvuma, Lindi na Mtwara)
Mvua zinatarajiwa kuanza wiki ya kwanza na ya pili ya mwezi Novemba, 2014 na zinatarajiwa kuwa za wastani hadi juu ya wastani isipokuwa maeneo mengi ya mkoa wa Ruvuma, yanatarajiwa kuwa na mvua za wastani hadi chini ya wastani katika baadhi ya maeneo.

            
Kielelezo: 1 – Ramani ikionesha Mvua – kushoto:     Wastani wa mvua Mwezi Oktoba hadi Disemba; Kulia: Mwelekeo wa Mvua katika msimu huu wa Oktoba hadi Disemba 2104.
Izingatiwe kuwa pamoja na kuwapo kwa uwezekano wa matukio mengi ya mvua kubwa katika maeneo yanayotarajiwa kupata mvua juu ya wastani, hali hiyo pia inaweza kujitokeza katika maeneo yanayotarajiwa kupata mvua za wastani hadi chini ya wastani.
Matukio ya Vimbunga katika eneo la kusini magharibi mwa Bahari ya Hindi yanatarajiwa kuchangia katika mwenendo wa mvua nchini. Maeneo ambayo hali ya mvua inaweza kuathiriwa zaidi na vimbunga ni pamoja na kanda ya kati, Nyanda za juu Kusini Magharibi, Magharibi mwa nchi na maeneo ya ukanda wa Pwani.

E: ATHARI NA USHAURI
Maeneo mengi ya nchi yanatarajiwa kupata mvua za wastani hadi juu ya wastani isipokua baadhi ya maeneo ya kusini mwa nchi yanayotarajiwa kupata mvua za wastani hadi chini ya wastani. Matarajio ya mvua hizo pamoja na ushauri kwa baadhi ya sekta za kiuchumi na kijamii zimeainishwa kama ifuatavyo;
Kilimo na Usalama wa Chakula
Katika  maeneo mengi ya nchi hali ya unyevunyevu  wa udongo inatarajiwa kuwa ya kutosheleza shughuli za kilimo. Hata hivyo, kwa maeneo machache ya kusini mwa nchi (hususan Mkoa wa Ruvuma) vipindi vya upungufu wa mvua vinatarajiwa mwanzoni mwa msimu na hivyo kuathiri kiwango cha unyevunyevu wa udongo. Hali ya unyevunyevu wa udongo kupita kiasi inayoambatana na vipindi vya mvua  kubwa inaweza kusababisha ongezeko la magugu, matumizi makubwa ya pembejeo, hivyo kuongeza gharama za uzalishaji. Wakulima wanashauriwa kuandaa mashamba  na pembejeo mapema  pamoja na kuzingatia ushauri wa wataalam wa kilimo kwa matumizi sahihi ya ardhi na mbegu.

Malisho  na maji kwa ajili ya mifugo na wanyama pori
Hali ya malisho na upatikanaji wa maji kwa ajili ya mifugo na wanyama pori inatarajiwa kuwa nzuri katika maeneo mengi nchini. Hata hivyo, wafugaji  wanashauriwa kuzalisha malisho na  kuyahifadhi kwa matumizi wakati wa kiangazi. Aidha, wafugaji wanashauriwa kufuata maelekezo ya wataalam wa ugani katika maeneo yao hususan matumizi ya maji na malisho  na kukabiliana na  magonjwa ya mlipuko yanayoweza kujitokeza. Kutokana na hali ya mvua inayotarajiwa, matukio ya migogoro inayosababishwa na mifugo,  wanyamapori na shughuli za binadamu na kilimo hayatarajiwi kujitokeza kwa kiasi kikubwa.

Maliasili na Utalii
Mamlaka za usimamizi wa shughuli za utalii na hifadhi za wanyamapori zina shauriwa kuchukua hatua stahiki katika kuzuia uharibifu wa  miundombinu kama barabara na madaraja ndani ya hifadhi dhidi ya adhari za mvua kubwa na za juu ya wastani katika maeneo husika.  Aidha, wawindaji, wapiga picha za kitalii na makampuni ya kitalii yanashauriwa kuchukua tahadhari ya uwepo wa mafuriko kutokana na mvua zinazotarajiwa.
Maji na Nishati
Mtiririko wa maji katika mito na vina vya maji katika mabwawa vinatarajiwa kuongezeka katika maeneo mengi ya nchi kutokana na mvua za msimu wa Vuli. Pamoja na matarajio ya kuwepo kwa mvua za juu ya wastani inashauriwa kuwa maji yatumike kwa uangalifu na kuzingatia taratibu za uvunaji, uhifadhi na matumizi endelevu ya rasilimali maji.
Mamlaka za Miji
Inashauriwa  kuchukua hatua  za kuhakikisha kuwa mifumo na njia za kupitisha maji  zinafanyakazi  katika kiwango cha kutosha kuhimili mvua zinazotarajiwa ili kuepusha maji kutuama na kusababisha mafuriko na uharibifu wa miundombinu, upotevu wa maisha na mali katika maeneo husika.
Sekta ya Afya
Ushauri unatolewa kwa jamii na sekta husika kuchukua hatua stahiki katika kuzuia  milipuko ya magonjwa yanayosababishwa  na kutuama kwa maji na utiririshaji wa maji taka usiodhibitiwa katika maeneo yao.
Menejimenti ya Maafa
Mamlaka za maafa na wadau wengine wanashauriwa kuchukua hatua stahiki katika utunzaji wa mazingira, upatikanaji wa maji safi na salama, na usambazaji wa madawa, maji na chakula ikiwa ni hatua za kujiandaa na kukabiliana na majanga yanayoweza kutokea kutokana na vipindi vya mvua  kubwa na mvua za juu ya wastani zinazotarajiwa.
Vyombo vya habari
Vyombo vya habari vinashauriwa kufuatilia, kupata na kusambaza taarifa sahihi za mienendo ya hali ya hewa kutoka Mamlaka ya Hali ya Hewa Tanzania (TMA) na kutumia wataalam wa sekta husika katika kuandaa na kufikisha taarifa za masuala mtambuka ya hali ya hewa kwa jamii. Aidha, jamii nayo inashauriwa kufuatilia na kuzingatia taarifa sahihi za hali ya hewa na mirejeo yake kupitia vyombo vya habari.

Angalizo: Mwelekeo wa mvua uliotolewa hapa umezingatia zaidi kipindi cha msimu (miezi mitatu) na hali ya mvua katika maeneo makubwa. Hivyo, viashiria vinavyochangia mwenendo wa mifumo ya mvua na mabadiliko ya muda mfupi katika maeneo madogo utazingatiwa katika   uchambuzi wa utabiri wa muda wa kati na mfupi. Watumiaji wa taarifa za utabiri huu wanashauriwa pia kufuatilia tabiri za saa 24, siku 10 pamoja na wa mwezi kama zinavyotolewa na Mamlaka ya hali ya Hewa Tanzania.
Mamlaka ya Hali ya Hewa Tanzania Itaendelea kufuatilia mwenendo wa mifumo ya hali ya hewa na kutoa taarifa za mwelekeo wa mvua nchini.


Dkt. Agnes L. Kijazi
MKURUGENZI MKUU
 

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